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NYMEX crude oil rallied nicely in the month of February and March. From the high of $42.49 it formed a short term correction, which found support near the junction of 40-day exponential moving average, daily lower Bollinger band and the 38.2% retracement mark. Near those supports the bulls rushed in to provide support. Consequently, the oil started its next rally and crossed the high of $42.49. The oil has reached 78.6% retracement of the previous fall. The subsequent level on the upside will be $48.36-50.92. On the other hand, $44.28 will act as a key support on closing basis.



NCDEX Soybean was oscillating about the key daily moving averages for several weeks. In terms of the price patterns, the agri-commodity formed a triangular pattern, which broke out on the upside in March. Since the breakout the commodity was marching towards north in a channelised manner. However near the end of April it broke lower end of the channel and entered correction mode. The fall is breaking up into the lower degree waves. On the downside, a medium-term rising trendline will be the key level to watch out for. Once the key support zone of Rs 3,775-3,755 breaks, target on the downside will be Rs 3,585. The daily momentum indicator is in line with the price action. On the other hand, Rs 3,970 - 4,000 will act as a crucial resistance zone on a closing basis.



The adjacent chart shows the price movement of MCX nickel continuous contract. The base metal formed a significant bounce from the daily lower Bollinger band. The rise continued till Rs 634, where nickel faced sharp selling pressure. Consequently, it has formed a large bearish outside bar on the daily chart. In terms of price pattern nickel seems to be taking form of a triangular pattern. Within the triangle it is forming a leg on the downside, which is subdividing into lower degree waves. The commodity is expected to tumble towards the lower end of the pattern, ie Rs 565. An intermediate support zone will be Rs 591-587. On the other hand, the level of Rs 634 will act as a crucial resistance.
 

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